If you've been watching Miami real estate this year, you already know something shifted. The headlines call it a buyer's market. The numbers tell a more interesting story. Here's what I'm seeing on the ground, deal by deal, and what I'm telling clients sitting on the fence.

The numbers, no spin

Median sale price in Miami sits around $675,000 as of the latest reporting, up about 3.1% year over year. Miami-Dade as a whole is closer to $577,000, up 1.3%. That's not the explosive growth we saw two years ago. It's also not the crash some were predicting back in 2024.

Here's what changed: inventory grew roughly 21% year over year. We finally have something resembling balance. Not in every segment, mind you. But the days when a decent condo got eight offers in 48 hours? Mostly gone, except in very specific pockets.

Brickell: the tale of two markets

Brickell is the cleanest example of the split happening across Miami. The median condo there is around $660,000, with average price per square foot near $657. Listings are sitting on the market about 113 days. Months of supply has stretched to roughly 17 months, which is more than double what we'd call balanced.

That sounds bearish until you look at the luxury tier. High-end condos in Brickell hit $1,045 per square foot in early 2026, a 12% jump from last year. Pre-construction at Baccarat and Mandarin Oriental is pricing at $2,000-$2,600 per square foot. Different planet entirely.

So when someone asks me "is Brickell hot or cold?", my honest answer is: depends which Brickell you mean.

Luxury is still running

The $1 million-plus segment jumped over 21% year over year in both single-family and condo transactions. That's not slowing down. Cash buyers, international wealth, second-home buyers from New York and California, they're still showing up with full offers and no contingencies.

If you own a finished, well-located luxury property and you price it right, you're closing. If you own a mid-tier condo in a building with high HOA fees and aging amenities, you're competing with 16 other listings on your same floor.

Days on market: read this carefully

Miami homes are taking around 107 days to sell on average. Single-family in Miami-Dade dropped to about 42 days median (down from 61 last spring). Condos take much longer, especially the older inventory.

The gap between single-family and condo time-on-market is the widest I've seen in years. Buyers want houses. Houses are scarce. Condos are everywhere. Simple supply and demand, complicated by HOA assessments and the post-Surfside regulation environment that still spooks part of the market.

Mortgage rates around 6.3%: what it means in practice

Rates have eased into the low 6s. That's not 2021 territory, and it's not coming back any time soon based on what the Fed is signaling. But it's down from the 7s we saw a year ago. For a $675K home with 20% down, you're looking at around $3,400 monthly principal and interest, give or take.

The buyers who've adjusted to this rate environment are closing. The ones still waiting for 4% are the ones who'll be paying $725K next year for the same house. I know that sounds like a sales pitch. It isn't. It's just what the math has been telling us since 2023.

Where I see actual leverage right now

Buyers

• Brickell condos in older buildings (pre-2010): sellers are negotiable, you can ask for closing credits, you have time to inspect properly.
• Mid-tier single-family in Coral Gables, Pinecrest, Miami Shores: still competitive, but no longer insane. Bring your best offer, but don't waive inspection.
• New construction with developer incentives: some builders are offering rate buydowns and closing cost contributions to move standing inventory.

Sellers

• Single-family under $1M in good school districts: still strong demand. Price right, stage well, and you'll see action in the first 30 days.
• Waterfront luxury: the wealth migration is real and it's not slowing. If you have the right product, you have the leverage.
• Anyone selling something move-in ready and turn-key: buyers are tired and don't want renovation projects in this rate environment.

My forecast for the rest of 2026

I expect a 2-4% appreciation across Miami-Dade by year-end, with luxury outperforming the broader market by a wide margin. Inventory will probably keep growing through Q3, then start tightening if rates drop further. The condo segment will stay challenging until insurance and HOA pressure stabilize, which honestly might take another 12-18 months.

The thing I'm watching closely: international capital flows. Argentine, Colombian, and Brazilian buyers have been quieter than usual. If that picks up, the luxury floor goes higher. If it doesn't, we settle into the 2-4% appreciation lane and call it a year.

Bottom line

This isn't a market that rewards passive observation. The deals are there. So are the traps. Whether you're buying, selling, or sitting on something you bought in 2021 wondering what to do, the answer involves looking at your specific property, your specific neighborhood, and your specific financial picture. Not the headlines.

If you want me to run the numbers on something you're considering, that's literally what I do. The first call is free, and I'll tell you the truth even if it costs me a commission.

Thinking about buying, selling, or just want a second opinion on the numbers? Schedule a free strategy call and let's look at your specific situation.

Sources and data

Data in this article comes from Zillow, Redfin, MIAMI Association of Realtors real-time stats, FRED (St. Louis Fed) Miami-Dade housing series, CondoBlackBook Q3 2025 luxury report, and Brickell Sold Q1 2026 market reports. Reporting period covers Q4 2025 through April 2026 closings.